Superintelligence

Superintelligence

Paths, Dangers, Strategies

Nick Bostrom

Proxy Trap

Metrics become mirages when optimized directly.

Surely if the AI is superintelligent, it must understand that when we asked it to make us happy, we didn’t mean that it should reduce us to a perpetually repeating recording of a drugged-out digitized mental episode!”—The AI may indeed understand that this is not what we meant. However, its final goal is to make us happy, not to do what the programmers meant when they wrote the code that represents this goal.
False Positives

Rare signals drown in false positives.

A possible exception would be software hooked up to sufficiently powerful actuators, such as software in early warning systems if connected directly to nuclear warheads or to human officers authorized to launch a nuclear strike. Malfunctions in such software can result in high-risk situations. This has happened at least twice within living memory. On November 9, 1979, a computer problem led NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) to make a false report of an incoming full-scale Soviet attack on the United States. The USA made emergency retaliation preparations before data from early-warning radar systems showed that no attack had been launched (McLean and Stewart 1979). On September 26, 1983, the malfunctioning Soviet Oko nuclear early-warning system reported an incoming US missile strike. The report was correctly identified as a false alarm by the duty officer at the command center, Stanislav Petrov: a decision that has been credited with preventing thermonuclear war (Lebedev 2004).
Tempo Gradient

Decision-making speed determines conflict outcomes.

A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days. Fast takeoff scenarios offer scant opportunity for humans to deliberate. Nobody need even notice anything unusual before the game is already lost.